From a year or so, nearly six months, nearly a month to analyze this
In addition, the world's major oil consumption of individual economic cycle has an important impact on the price of crude oil. In the United States, for example, since 2003, along with the continued growth of the U.S. economy, the New York Mercantile Exchange WTI crude oil futures prices continued to shock higher. Crude oil prices have also risen sharply in several periods of rapid economic growth in the growth cycle. 2007 - 2008 U.S. economic growth cycle, into the downlink cycle. Although affected by short-term factors such as market expectations, the price of crude oil was ascribed to 145 dollars per barrel, but after the short-term shocks, the price of crude oil the final result of the economic cycle constraints, began to fall rapidly. 2008 WTI crude oil futures prices fell to $58.7 / barrel, down by 59.5%. 2009 global financial crisis stabilized, the U.S. economy gradually out of recession, crude oil prices will pick up. In 2009 the United States in the third quarter GDP quarter annualized rate of 2.8%, close to the pre crisis level of economic growth, the price of crude oil back to 70 to 80 dollars per barrel range, with basically the same as in 2007, the 3 quarter of second.
(two) the law analysis of the economic cycle and the adjustment of crude oil priceWe can divide the development of global economy since 1983 has been divided into five economic cycles, including four complete cycles: 1983 - 1988, 1989 - 1996, about 1997 to 1999, about 2000 to 2007 or so. In each cycle, the global economy began to fall from the peak of the previous cycle, and then gradually recovered after bottoming, from recession to prosperity. At present, the global economy is in fifth cycles.Can be seen from Figure 5, the first complete cycle, changes in crude oil prices and the economic cycle has a significant correlation between the recovery and growth of each round of economy have led to a rise in the price of oil, and every round of economic recession has led to a drop in oil prices. In the current economic cycle, this relationship is more obvious: the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis triggered by the global financial crisis, leading to the global economic recession, into a downward cycle, crude oil prices also fell sharply, the New York Mercantile Exchange, Brent crude oil spot price by the end of 2007 of $93.9, fell to 2008 barrels at the end of the 41.8 U.S. dollars / barrel, a drop of 55.5%.
