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Conditional probability of sounding an alarm?

Hi there,as it happens I tripped over another fish related exercise that I can't figure out and would appreciate your help!Ben has secured with his prized koi pond with an alarm system that will be set off with a probability of 0.99 if a human thief is at the pond at night. With a probability of 0.02 the alarm is set off without good reason, e.g. when a cat is prowling around. Each night, with a probability of 0.001, Ben's friend Jerry is drunk enough that he tries to steal the fish.One night, the alarm is set off. What's the probability of Ben's friend Jerry being the cause for it?I would really appreciate your help on how to solve this task!Thank you very much in advance!

Answer:

When they had the contest to see who can keep from waanking off the longest When George had that line the jerk store called and he went thru all that stuff to meet that man again When Kramer had the $$man license plate
Is your old blanket not working as well as it used to? Or does it just not look as good as it did? Those are two separate issues. Electric blankets tend to lose their strength over time, or develop spots that warm up more than others. If that's the case, yes, it's time to get a new one. As for the size if you've got a single or double size bed, there's no point in getting a queen size. It'll just hang too far over the sides and will show below your bedspread. You won't get any more heat out of a queen blanket just because it's larger.
Set the temperature so that you are ALL uncomfortable and sick, either below 60 or above 80, dont put it near 70-72 which is normal. What moron told you that you get sick from a temperature change. It comes from VIRUSES, clean and disinfect your house woman!!!

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